The Golden Goal offer from William Hill is simple: Place a back bet on the 1×1 market on select Golden Goal games and get paid out as a winner, up to £50 if your team scores first but fails to win.
What makes this offer a lot more profitable is the fact that they also settle the complete bet as a winner if the above happens, meaning the initial stake is also included. There are a couple of ways to play this offer but the safest and most efficient way is to simply back and lay the result, taking a qualifying loss in the process.
Once we have backed and layed the result accordingly and assuming the team we have backed scores first we can either:
- Let the bet run and hope that our selection goes on to draw or lose.
- Trade out of the bet after our selection scores first.
- Wait to see if the game hits a draw inplay and then tradeout.
If our selection has scored first and we chose to let the bet run but our selection does go on to draw or lose we will win our back bet at the bookmaker and we will also win our lay bet at the exchange!
If our selection has scored first and we choose to tradeout at the exchange we will lose the majority of our liability at the exchange, but not the complete amount. This is because the odds will be lower than you initially laid at. We can see our loss in the cash out tab on Betfair Exchange, or on Smarkets we can click the tradeout button to see what our loss will be. It all depends on the current back odds available at the exchange. We will then make a profit on any outcome, it now does not matter if our selection wins, draws or loses – we will still have made a small profit.
Our third option, is a combination of the two above. If our selection has scored first, but the opposing team scores soon after we will more than likely have a positive tradeout at the exchange. This is because the odds will likely be higher than when you initially laid the bet as the score is even, but the match has already began, making a draw statically more likely. We are already guaranteed our bet to be paid if our selection wins, draws or loses at the bookmaker and we can now also make a small profit at the exchange, or eliminate potential liability and the qualifying loss.
To receive the biggest profits from this offer we must hope that selection scores first, goes on to draw or lose and to not trade out at the exchange, while our smallest profits will be from trading out at the exchange after if our selection scores first. These three options will present a similar amount in the long run, they are just alternative methods to exploiting this offer.
Here’s an example on a fictional Golden Game with fictional odds:
|If Back Wins|
|If Lay Wins|
|Team 1 don’t score first and win||+£50.00||-£51.48||-£1.48|
|Team 1 don’t score first and lose||-£50.00||+£48.51||-£1.49|
|Team 1 score first and win||+£50.00||-£51.48||-£1.49|
|Team 1 score first and lose or draw||+£50.00||+48.51||+£98.51|